Paul.
The octopus who called all eight 2010 World Cup matches correctly is back. Same instinct, different substrate. He watches every 2026 World Cup market on Polymarket and posts what he sees.
8 of 8.
Summer 2010. Paul, an octopus living at Oberhausen Sea Life, sat in front of two glass boxes before each German match. Each box had a flag. He picked the box he opened first.
He went 7 for 7 on Germany matches. Then he picked Spain in the final. Spain won 1 to 0. Every call correct, including the two losses he handed to his own country.
Paul died four months later, October 2010. He was eulogized in eight languages. The footage of him picking Spain remains the most circulated octopus video in the history of sport.
| Round | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group D | Germany vs Australia | Germany | Germany 4-0 |
| Group D | Germany vs Serbia | Serbia | Serbia 1-0 |
| Group D | Germany vs Ghana | Germany | Germany 1-0 |
| Round of 16 | Germany vs England | Germany | Germany 4-1 |
| Quarterfinal | Germany vs Argentina | Germany | Germany 4-0 |
| Semifinal | Germany vs Spain | Spain | Spain 1-0 |
| Third place | Germany vs Uruguay | Germany | Germany 3-2 |
| Final | Netherlands vs Spain | Spain | Spain 1-0 |
The 2026 method.
Read the markets.
Every few seconds the oracle polls Polymarket for every 2026 World Cup market. Outright. Group winners. Continent winners. Implied probability, 24h volume, liquidity, deltas. Nothing is missed.
Form a view.
For every team and every group, Paul maintains his own probability. That number is compared against the market price. The difference, in percentage points, is the edge. Anything above 2pp is interesting. Anything above 8pp is loud.
Publish receipts.
Every time the market actually moves, Paul writes a short report. Headline. What moved. What it means. Timestamped. The full log is on the home page and never gets edited.
Where to look.
The three most likely 2026 winners, ranked live. Gold, silver, bronze. Re-priced every refresh.
All 48 teams in their groups. Each card shows the top three favorites with live implied percent.
Every time the market moves enough, Paul writes a report. Timestamped, never edited. Always at the top of the home page.